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GCTAF — Time-Series Forecasting & Flare Risk Classification

Attention-based forecasting of magnetic field trajectories combined with supervised contrastive learning for solar flare classification.

Python
PyTorch
Attention
Contrastive Learning
Time-Series

Problem

Solar flare prediction suffers from class imbalance, irregular temporal gaps, and missing values across SHARP magnetic features.

Approach

Two-stage learning: contrastive pretraining with missing-aware triplets and focal loss, then linear probing + fine-tuning.

Architecture

8 SHARP features → attention encoder → 60-step delta forecasts. Parallel contrastive head → flare risk classifier.

Results

Beat persistence baseline on forecasting; TSS 0.75 on flare classification.

Lessons learned

Representation learning with missing-aware triplets dominates direct supervised training under heavy class imbalance.